At a Glance
- A fresh Polymarket wallet dropped $40,000 on OpenAI launching a web browser before October 2025 ended
- The bet paid off within days, netting the account $7,000 in profit
- Polysights, a monitoring tool, flagged the trade as potential insider activity on X
- Why it matters: Prediction markets like Polymarket treat insider trades as early signals, not crimes, blurring ethics in under-regulated betting
A brand-new crypto wallet on Polymarket wagered $40,000 in October 2025 that OpenAI would release an AI web browser before the month closed. When the launch happened shortly after, the account walked away with $7,000 profit, raising eyebrows across the platform.
Insider Finder, a tool within the Polysights analytics suite, spotted the transaction and posted it on the company’s X account. The post labeled the user as a likely insider with advance knowledge of the browser release. Instead of triggering a legal probe, the update served as a trading cue, letting followers pile into the same bet and ride the profit wave.
The Insider Trading Debate
On Polymarket, insider trading isn’t a dirty phrase. Supporters argue that these leaks act as real-time indicators of upcoming news, making markets more efficient. Critics counter that trading on non-public info rigs the game, widening the gap between well-connected insiders and everyday bettors.
“Insider trading just accelerates the truth faster at the end of the day,” said Tre Upshaw, creator of Polysights. The 29-year-old former memecoin trader from Canada told Bloomberg that his platform has attracted 24,000 users and is closing a $2 million funding round. Polymarket itself handed Upshaw a $25,000 grant to expand the tool.
Polysights claims an 85% win rate on the trades it flags and posts. Upshaw personally risks hundreds of dollars on bets he deems solid, turning his software into a public tip sheet for the prediction market crowd.
Regulatory Vacuum
Traditional finance bans insider trading outright. Prediction markets operate in a grey zone. The CFTC, which oversees rival platform Kalshi and approved Polymarket’s U.S. return, has issued zero guidance on insider trades for these contracts.
Polymarket was barred stateside in 2022 after the Biden-era CFTC ruled it offered event-based contracts without proper registration. President Trump ended federal probes in July 2025. The platform then announced a comeback-still partial-and named Donald Trump Jr. as an adviser.
Biggest Scores
- Google Year in Search: A suspected Google insider pocketed $1 million+ by betting on the 2025 rankings hours before release
- Venezuelan politics: A fresh account bet $30,000 on Nicolás Maduro’s downfall and reportedly cashed out $436,759 within hours earlier this month
Capitol Hill Reaction
Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) introduced a bill barring federal officials from betting on policy outcomes via prediction markets. The proposal has 30 Democratic co-sponsors as of Monday, though passage remains uncertain.
Trump’s camp remains bullish on prediction markets. Trump Media plans to launch a Polymarket-style exchange on Truth Social, betting the pro-business stance will keep regulators at bay.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket insiders can turn advance knowledge into five-figure profits within days
- No federal rules stop the practice, leaving platforms to police themselves
- Lawmakers are drafting narrow bans, but a comprehensive framework is missing
- With Trump’s backing, prediction markets may stay wild for the foreseeable future
