At a Glance
- A Polymarket user turned $34K into $400K+ by betting the U.S. would topple Nicolás Maduro.
- The final $14K wager landed hours before Saturday’s special-forces raid.
- Five other accounts also cashed out smaller but still five-figure sums.
- Why it matters: The timing raises red flags that prediction markets could be exploited with classified or insider knowledge.
A single crypto wallet placed 13 bets between December 27 and January 3, all tied to one outcome: the United States removing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power. When U.S. forces captured Maduro in the early hours of Saturday, those contracts paid out more than $400,000-even though the user had staked only $33,934.
The Bets That Beat the News Cycle
Polymarket’s public ledger shows the account’s largest wager-$14,000-was entered late Friday night, before any media outlet reported an imminent operation. President Trump had warned in December that Maduro’s days were “numbered,” yet Pentagon officials told News Of Fort Worth the exact timing was kept compartmentalized until hours before launch.
- 13 total trades on U.S. invasion and Maduro-removal markets
- All positions opened between December 27 and January 3
- Final bet placed Friday night, immediately before the raid
- Winnings cashed out in Solana via a major U.S. exchange
Chainalysis, which traces on-chain activity, says the user made no effort to obscure the money trail, meaning investigators could link the wallet to a real-world identity if they choose to pursue the matter.
A Broader Pattern on Polymarket
At least four additional accounts wagered $700-$900 between Thursday and Saturday on Maduro being out of office by January 31. Each collected $7,000-$14,000 when the market resolved. Whether these smaller bettors had advance knowledge or simply guessed right is unknown.
| Account Group | Total Stake | Est. Payout | Bet Window |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main wallet | $33,934 | $400,000+ | Dec 27-Jan 3 |
| Four others | $700-$900 each | $7K-$14K each | Jan 9-Jan 11 |
Regulatory Spotlight
Prediction markets occupy a legal gray zone. Polymarket once barred U.S. users under CFTC pressure, but the agency closed its investigation in the summer and approved the platform as a registered exchange in November. Americans can now bet through a compliant interface, though new sign-ups still must attest they are “not a U.S. person.”
Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) plans to introduce the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, explicitly making it a crime to trade on non-public information on sites like Polymarket. Former SEC attorney David Chase notes that using classified or insider knowledge for commodity-style bets is generally considered fraud, but courts have yet to clarify how that principle applies to crypto-based prediction markets.
Key Takeaways
- One bettor made $400K profit after wagering that the U.S. would topple Maduro.
- The biggest bet arrived hours before the actual military operation.
- Five other accounts also won on the same outcome, though stakes were smaller.
- Lawmakers and regulators are weighing new rules to curb insider-style trading on crypto prediction platforms.
Whether the big winner was improbably lucky-or had access to confidential planning-remains an open question. What’s clear is that prediction markets can deliver eye-popping returns when world events break in a bettor’s favor.
