At a Glance
- U.S. crude rose 0.3% and Brent gained 0.2% after overnight swings
- Chevron jumped 10% as the only U.S. firm already cleared to operate in Venezuela
- Why it matters: Venezuela’s 300-billion-barrel reserve could reshape global supply if American giants are allowed back in
Oil markets gyrated through Sunday night as traders digested President Trump’s surprise capture of Nicolás Maduro and his pledge to send “very large U.S. oil companies” into Venezuela.
Overnight Roller-Coaster
West Texas Intermediate opened lower at 6 p.m. ET, flipped positive, then settled up 0.3% by 6:30 a.m. Monday. Brent crude traced the same path, ending 0.2% higher.
- Futures pointed higher: S&P 500 +0.3%, Nasdaq 100 +0.8%
- Gold leapt $90 (+2.1%), silver +4%
- OPEC kept output steady and stayed silent on Caracas
Stocks That Surged
Energy names rallied hard in pre-market trading:
| Company | Symbol | Pre-market gain |
|---|---|---|
| Chevron | CVX | Up to 10% |
| ExxonMobil | XOM | ~4% |
| ConocoPhillips | COP | ~4% |
| Valero | VLO | ~7% |
| Phillips 66 | PSX | ~7% |
| SLB Baker Hughes Halliburton | Service trio | 7-9% |
Two Paths for Prices
Traders see a fork in the road:
- Bull case: regional instability tightens supply
- Bear case: a reopened Venezuela floods the market
President Trump framed the prize:
> “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies … spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure and start making money for the country.”
Yet PDVSA says $8 billion is needed just to return output to 1990s levels-money no company has committed and that majors have been stingy with since 2025’s record price slump.
Key Takeaways
- Overnight volatility left crude slightly higher, not lower
- Chevron holds the only existing U.S. license, giving it first-mover advantage
- Years of under-investment mean any supply surge remains distant
- A global “super glut” was already forecast before the weekend’s events
With Venezuela’s 300-billion-barrel reserve larger than Saudi Arabia’s, the stakes are huge-but so are the hurdles.
