At a Glance
- 45% of U.S. adults identify as independents, the highest share Gallup has recorded
- Younger generations drive the surge: over half of Gen Z and Millennials reject party labels
- Democrats regain edge among leaners, but gains appear tied to dislike of Trump, not party loyalty
- Why it matters: The swelling center could decide 2026 midterms, yet neither party can count on lasting support
A record share of Americans now call themselves political independents, according to fresh Gallup data, signaling a continued drift away from the two major parties that could reshape the 2026 midterm battlefield.
The survey finds 45% of U.S. adults eschewing Republican or Democratic labels-up from roughly one-third two decades ago. The shift is most pronounced among younger voters, with majorities of Gen Z and Millennials born between 1981 and 2007 now identifying outside the traditional party structure.
Independents Tilt Democratic-For Now
When pushed to say which side they lean toward, independents have lately drifted back to the Democrats. 47% of all adults now either identify as Democrats or lean that way, while 42% side with the GOP, flipping a three-year Republican advantage held during much of President Joe Biden’s term.
But Gallup warns the bounce may be fragile. Democratic favorability remains historically low; the uptick appears powered more by independents’ growing dislike of former President Donald Trump than by renewed enthusiasm for the party itself. Trump’s approval among independents has fallen steadily over the past year, even as views of Democrats stayed chilly.
Youth Rejection Redefines Electorate
Young Americans are the engine of the independent surge:
- 56% of Gen Z adults identify as independents
- That tops the 47% of Millennials who said the same in 2012 and the 40% of Gen Xers in 1992
- By contrast, only about 4 in 10 Gen Xers and roughly 3 in 10 older adults now claim independent status
The generational gap suggests the trend has staying power unless parties overhaul their appeal to younger voters.
Moderates Cluster in the Middle
The polling also shows independents increasingly describe their views as moderate. 47% did so in 2025, compared with about 3 in 10 Democrats and 2 in 10 Republicans. Over the past decade, the share of independents calling themselves moderate has inched upward, while Democrats and Republicans have grown more ideologically polarized.
- 60% of Democrats now identify as liberal
- 77% of Republicans call themselves conservative
- Moderate identity within both parties sits near historic lows
That polarization presents a strategic puzzle: appeals to the center could win over independents yet risk alienating each party’s most committed base voters.
What the Numbers Mean for 2026
With control of Congress up for grabs, both parties will court the expanding pool of independents, but neither can bank on long-term loyalty. The data hint that even small shifts in Trump’s image-or any new GOP standard-bearer-could move the needle again.
For Democrats, the current edge offers an opportunity, not a promise. For Republicans, the dip underscores the need to broaden their coalition beyond core conservatives. And for the growing mass of voters who refuse either label, the power to swing elections keeps rising-even if their own partisan home remains nowhere in sight.
