At a Glance
- Supreme Court will decide on Trump’s plan to curb birthright citizenship, sweeping tariffs, and his attempt to fire a Fed board member.
- The court has a 6-3 conservative majority and has historically waited until a president’s popularity wanes before delivering major defeats.
- Trump’s approval has fallen to 42% in a December NBC News Decision Desk Poll, with 58% disapproval.
- Why it matters: The rulings could signal the end of Trump’s most ambitious policy agenda.
In a year that could redefine the balance of power, the Supreme Court is poised to decide on three of President Donald Trump’s most controversial proposals, potentially delivering a significant blow to the administration.
Supreme Court’s Upcoming Rulings
The court is set to rule on Trump’s plan to curtail automatic birthright citizenship, his sweeping tariffs, and his attempt to fire a member of the Federal Reserve’s board of governors. The decisions are expected to come in the first half of 2026.
- Birthright citizenship: Court pending final ruling on merits, decision due by end of June 2026.
- Tariffs: Oral arguments Jan. 21 2026; decision early 2026.
- Fed board firing: Lower court blocked; oral arguments Jan. 21 2026; no immediate action.
Richard Pildes said:
> “The court is not confronting the president head-on until spring this year.”
Historical Timing and Popularity
Justices often delay rulings against a president early in a term, waiting for a decline in public support. Past examples include Truman (1952), Nixon (1974), Bush (2008), Obama (2015), and Biden (2022).
Barbara Perry noted:
> “If they see the president as very popular, they won’t rule against him or his policies, but maybe the opposite is true.”
The December poll shows a drop in Trump’s approval, with 42% approving and 58% disapproving of his performance.
Court Strategy and Recent Actions
Last year, the court granted emergency requests that allowed the Trump administration to push policies blocked by lower courts, drawing criticism even from some judges. Trump has largely held fire when it comes to the Supreme Court, even after losses such as the National Guard deployment in Chicago.
The court’s strategy of “kicking the can down the road” may increase the likelihood of a defeat, according to Daniel Epps:
> “Kicking the can down the road, I think, is helpful to the court and probably helpful to people that are hopeful that the court rules against Trump.”
The court is now poised to issue definitive rulings, not provisional decisions, which could finally halt Trump’s ambitious agenda.
Key Takeaways
- Supreme Court will decide on birthright citizenship, tariffs, and Fed board firing by mid-2026.
- The court’s 6-3 majority has historically waited for a president’s popularity to wane before ruling.
- Trump’s approval has fallen to 42%, potentially influencing the court’s timing.
The upcoming rulings could mark a turning point in Trump’s second term, setting the stage for a major policy showdown.
