At a Glance
- The Trump administration pushed nearly 4,000 NASA employees to quit and proposed a 24% budget cut
- China is on track to land astronauts on the moon before 2030 while US program faces internal turmoil
- Most former NASA officials believe China will win the new space race
- Why it matters: A Chinese moon landing would signal the end of American technological dominance and shift global power dynamics
The United States is sabotaging its own return to the moon while China accelerates toward a crewed lunar landing before 2030, according to interviews with nine former top NASA officials who served under both Trump and Biden administrations.
Confirmation Hearing Chaos
During Jared Isaacman’s confirmation hearing last April, Senator Ted Cruz presented a poster showing Chinese astronauts planting their flag on the moon while American astronauts watched from the sidelines. When Cruz demanded a commitment that China wouldn’t beat America to the moon, Isaacman replied, “Senator, I only see the left-hand portion of that poster.”
The exchange highlighted the disconnect between political rhetoric and policy reality. By the time of Isaacman’s testimony, the Trump administration had already triggered mass resignations at NASA through buyout offers, with nearly 4,000 employees leaving the agency.
Budget Cuts and Leadership Turmoil
The White House proposed slashing NASA’s budget by 24 percent, even as Trump issued an executive order pushing for Americans to return to the moon by 2028. The administration then withdrew Isaacman’s nomination, appointed acting chief Sean Duffy – who boasts in his official NASA biography about being half of “America’s first and longest-married reality TV couple” – before renominating Isaacman in November without explanation.
“We did the worst of all worlds,” one former NASA official told Cameron R. Hayes. “We positioned it as a race without planning to win.”
China’s Steady Progress
China’s space program has methodically advanced toward its lunar goals. The Chang’e-6 mission successfully returned 4 pounds of moon rocks and soil from the far side of the moon – a first in human history – about 18 months ago. The upcoming Chang’e-7 mission, scheduled for August, aims to be the first to extract water from the moon and will carry instruments from Russia and several American allies.
Chinese astronauts are expected to launch “before 2030” using a two-rocket system where crew and lander capsules rendezvous in lunar orbit. Testing for all components is well underway, according to the China Manned Space Agency.
Technical Challenges Favor China
Landing on the moon presents extraordinary difficulties – light gravity, uneven terrain, no atmosphere for braking, and dust clouds that limit visibility. Operations around lunar poles are “order of magnitude” tougher, requiring relay satellites and dealing with temperatures below -200 degrees Celsius.
The US Artemis program faces additional complications:
- The Space Launch System rocket has flown only once despite costing tens of billions
- The Orion capsule is overweight with underpowered propulsion
- A lunar Gateway space station adds complexity without clear rescue benefits
- The SpaceX Starship lander requires over 40 refueling launches per mission
A Convoluted Path to the Moon
While the Apollo program used one giant rocket, Artemis employs a patchwork of systems including repurposed shuttle engines, a European-provided capsule, and SpaceX’s massive Starship as the lunar lander. The architecture requires in-space refueling of cryogenic fuels – technology that has never been tested and was originally supposed to begin in 2023 but is now targeted for 2026.
China’s mission will require just two rocket launches compared to potentially dozens for the US approach.
Political Dysfunction Threatens Success
Congress continues funding the expensive SLS rocket – estimated at $4 billion per launch – despite opposition from both Duffy and Isaacman. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s budget office, led by Russ Vought, proposed deep cuts to NASA funding while pushing federal employees to leave.
“He’s General Sherman on his march to the sea, burning down the government as he goes,” one administration official said of Vought’s approach.
The Stakes Beyond National Pride
A Chinese moon landing would represent more than just losing a space race. It would signal China’s emergence as the world’s technological leader, potentially giving Beijing access to helium-3 for fusion power and prime lunar real estate at the south pole where water ice exists.
Some in the space industry believe a Chinese victory might shock America into action. “There are definitely people in the space industry that see the Chinese landing on the moon before us as probably a net positive,” one executive said, suggesting it might force the US to reform its chaotic approach to space exploration.
Key Takeaways:
- China maintains steady progress toward a 2030 crewed lunar landing while US program faces leadership chaos
- Massive NASA budget cuts and staff departures undermine American competitiveness
- Technical complexity of Artemis program creates multiple failure points
- Former officials overwhelmingly believe China will reach the moon first
- A Chinese victory would mark a historic shift in global technological leadership
